Callahan: Why the Patriots are underdogs, Drake Maye vs. disguise and more Week 15 thoughts

Welcome to the Friday Five Every week during the NFL regular season I ll drop five Patriots-related thoughts on Friday to recap the week that was in Foxboro and look ahead to kickoff Ready set football An underdog explanation What a welcome the Patriots received returning from their bye Vegas oddsmakers installed the Bills as -point or -point favorites for this Sunday s showdown Now it s essential to remember sportsbooks set odds with the goal of receiving equal amounts of money on both teams to mitigate their liability no matter the outcome of the competition But if more money is placed during the week on Buffalo for example the line will move further in their favor of the Bills propping them up to say -point or -point favorites That noted the line hasn t moved all that much And before bets are placed sportsbooks use statistical models and analyses to rate teams project outcomes and inform the odds they set on head-to-head matchups Those numbers account for myriad factors including efficiency strength of schedule and down-to-down situational factors Which is to say when looking beyond basic measures not only do oddsmakers believe the Bills are the better organization but appreciably better Is that right Should Buffalo be favored on the road and as much as by three or four points on a neutral field Not exactly according to the proprietary Callahan Football Formula According to the CFF the Patriots and Bills sit on the same tier So do their quarterbacks Any spread that falls between Buffalo being favored by one and the Pats by three is OK here The Bills run the ball pass-protect and rush the passer better than the Pats who struggle to create pressure but boast better pass-catchers coverage players a stingier run defense and comparable special teams Let s give them a coaching edge too Against common opponents Buffalo is - including a second encounter versus Miami and the Patriots are - New England Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs gestures during the second half of an NFL championship against the Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park N Y last Sunday AP Photo Adrian Kraus By the deeper metrics the Bills rank three spots ahead of the Patriots on both offense and defense by the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA which accounts for strength of schedule According to Expected Points Added EPA the Pats also trail Buffalo on offense seventh in the league to third but rate well ahead of them on defense ninth to th If the publicly available advanced metrics lean toward the Bills you can bet the oddsmakers do too But if the Patriots win Sunday that s all that matters They will clinch both a division title and a season sweep At that point there will be no question no debate no need to explain The Pats are the better crew Period Base is the battleground The simplest practicable analysis for Sunday s meeting is the correct one The squad whose quarterback plays the best will win Sunday Drake Maye and Josh Allen are shouldering greater loads than virtually all other quarterbacks in the league They are the drivers and the engines of their respective offenses One battleground to watch though how the Patriots defense performs out of base personnel four defensive backs The Pats flexed into a traditional - defense back in the first meeting a clear effort to stunt Buffalo s league-leading run meeting That added beef with an extra defensive tackle and widened front corralled star running back James Cook greater part of the night as did the championship script which forced the Bills to pass to play catchup in the second half Expect the Patriots to return to bigger personnel Sunday to stop what remains the NFL s best rushing attack But what if Buffalo deploys heavy personnel triggering the Patriots base defense again and passes That would leave the Pats worst coverage players their linebackers and safeties exposed against Cook and tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox Kincaid led Buffalo with receiving yards in the last matchup No other Buffalo pass-catcher had yards The Patriots would love to play every battle through three-corner nickel personnel from start to finish but opposing offenses like Buffalo s can leverage them out of it by running well and or playing with extra tight ends and running backs When the Pats have fielded just four defensive backs they ve allowed a passer rating of this season per Sports Info Solutions Setting the numbers aside and the Bills have to know throwing against corners Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis is a fool s errand compared to targeting their teammates So what happens when Allen drops back and attacks them over the middle It might decide this meeting Drake vs disguise El quarterback de los Patriots de Nueva Inglaterra Drake Maye busca receptor durante la primera mitada del partido ante los Giants de Nueva York el lunes de diciembre de en Foxborough Massachusetts AP Foto Charles Krupa It s time for another edition of Drake Maye Stats You Wouldn t Believe Against disguised coverage this season plays where the defense presents a different picture after the snap than what it presented pre-snap often by rotating from two deep safeties to one or vice versa Maye is somehow better than when defenses don t try to fool him Per the SumerSports database Maye has completed of his passes versus disguised coverage throwing for yards per attempt and just one interception in pass attempts All of those numbers are much higher than his season long numbers completion percentage and yards per attempt Buffalo s defense camouflages coverage as well as most of in the league even fooling Joe Burrow last weekend for a sack Will Maye continue to see through the disguise McDaniels wrinkles Coming off an extra week of preparation for a division opponent intimately familiar with his offense might Josh McDaniels have a couple trick plays for the Bills on Sunday He answered that question Thursday during his weekly press conference without really answering the question We ve used what we feel like we ve had to use to win each week Don t think you will ever get to everything he explained So there s certainly more things we can do I think what matters hopefully we ve picked the right ones That s going to be the bulk critical thing But there s inevitably new things There s constantly things you grow to I think and you build through the season and you evolve offensively But I d say there s quite a meager things that we ve done over and over again that are the core of what we do just like everybody And there are a lot of sprinkles you can put on top of the ice cream every once in awhile if you feel like it fits Related Articles Patriots-Bills injury summary Several key defenders downgraded at Thursday practices Drake Maye Josh McDaniels enjoying working together with Patriots For the first time in years Patriots wide receiving corps isn t a weakness Patriots LB Jahlani Tavai partner disclose tragic loss in social media post Patriots participant visits Heading Home shelter at Lowell ICC to hand out toys to kids Sprinkles or wrinkles better to expect the unexpected Sunday McDaniels is one of the bigger proponents of trick plays across the league and at the very least should lean heavily into the the majority basic offensive trick play-action More than of Maye s passes in the Patriots last meeting with the Bills came off play-action A draft peek-ahead One of the leading draft experts in sports media The Athletic s Dane Brugler published his latest NFL mock draft last week Yes it s early Super early Way too early But don t tell me you re not even the slightest bit curious about who the Patriots took In his mock Brugler sent Georgia offensive tackle Monroe Freeling to New England at No overall Without taking a second to evaluation Freeling s film that gets my early stamp of approval As Brugler noted Pats right tackle Morgan Moses turns this spring and protecting Maye must be a top priority The Patriots offensive line does not come close to matching those of other contenders Denver Buffalo the Rams etc Any step toward solidifying that group as one of the NFL s best is a good idea Other positions I would consider in the first round a list subject to change edge rusher safety and linebacker