What’s next in the national redistricting fight after California approved a new US House map
By DAVID A LIEB Associated Press The new congressional map that California voters approved marked a conquest for Democrats in the national redistricting battle playing out ahead of the midterm referendum But Republicans are still ahead in the fight The distinctive mid-decade redistricting fray began this summer when President Donald Trump urged Republican-led states to reshape their voting districts to try to help the GOP retain control of the House in next year s referendum Democrats need to gain just three seats to win the chamber and impede Trump s agenda Texas responded first with a new U S House map aimed at helping Republicans win up to five additional seats Proposition which California voters supported Tuesday creates up to five additional seats that Democrats could win What s the figure in the redistricting battle If the voting goes according to the redistricting projections Democrats in California and Republicans in Texas could cancel each other s gains But Republicans could still be ahead by four seats in the redistricting battle New districts adopted in Missouri and North Carolina could help Republicans win one additional seat in each state And a new U S House map approved last week in Ohio boosts Republicans chances to win two additional seats Chosen big uncertainties remain Several Ohio districts are so competitive that Democrats believe they too have a chance at winning them Lawsuits persist in Missouri and North Carolina And Missouri s redistricting law faces a referendum petition that if accomplished would suspend the new map until it s put to a statewide vote What s next in California Republican legal challenges are likely to continue against California s new districts which impose boundaries drawn by the Democratic-led Legislature in place of those adopted after the census by an independent citizens commission But candidates can t afford to wait to ramp up campaigns in the new districts Though Democrats could win up to of California s U S House seats several districts are closely divided between Democratic and Republican voters Particular of the Democratic districts are perhaps going to vote blue but I wouldn t call them locks announced J Miles Coleman of the University of Virginia Center for Politics You could still have selected expensive races Coleman added Related Articles Pope Leo calls for deep reflection about medication of detained settlers in the United States The shutdown is hurting schools whose budgets are mostly federal money Trump heads to Miami to speak about his economic agenda on the anniversary of his electoral contest win Supreme Court weighs Trump tariffs in a trillion-dollar test of executive power Ruling body shutdown becomes the longest on record as fallout spreads nationwide Next up Indiana Republicans who control the Legislature chose not to convene a special session on redistricting Monday after Republican Indiana Gov Mike Braun had called for it But efforts to round up enough votes continue Lawmakers now are planning to consider redistricting during a rare December regular session Republicans presently hold seven of Indiana s nine U S House seats and could attempt to gain one or two more through redistricting Kansas Republican lawmakers had been collecting signatures from colleagues to call themselves into a special session to try to draw an additional Republican-leaning congressional district But particular lawmakers remained reluctant and House Speaker Dan Hawkins ended the effort Tuesday Redistricting could still come up during Kansas regular legislative session that begins Jan Could more Democrats join in gerrymandering Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin declared he hopes approval of California s redistricting sends a chilling effect on Republicans who are trying to do this around the country But if the Republicans continue to do this we will respond in kind each and every step of the way Martin announced On Tuesday Democratic Maryland Gov Wes Moore declared a commission on congressional redistricting even though the Democratic Senate president has mentioned his chamber won t move forward with redistricting because of concerns the effort to gain another Democratic seat could backfire National Democrats also want Illinois lawmakers to redistrict to gain an additional House seat But lawmakers thus far have resisted citing concerns about the effect on representation for Black residents Virginia s Democratic-led legislature in the last few days endorsed a proposed constitutional amendment allowing mid-decade redistricting But it demands another round of legislative approval early next year before going to voters Democrats currently hold six of Virginia s U S House seats and could try to gain two or three more by redistricting though no specific plan has been published Does all this remapping matter Over the past years when the president s party has held a House majority that party has lost an average of more than seats in midterm elections No amount of Republican redistricting this year could offset a loss of that size But the ballot may not be average Those past swings were so large partly because the president s party often held large House majorities which meant more competitive seats were at jeopardy The Republicans current slim majority is greater part similar to GOP margins during the midterm electoral contest under President George W Bush and Democrats margins during the midterm under President Joe Biden Republicans gained eight seats in when Bush was widely popular after the terrorist attacks Democrats lost nine seats in when Biden s approval rating was well under as Trump s is in contemporary times If next year s swing is similarly small a gain of just half-dozen to a dozen seats through redistricting could make a difference in which party wins the House Because we have this tiny numerical sliver separating a Democratic majority from a Republican majority the stakes are incredibly high even in a single state considering whether to redraw its districts explained David Hopkins a political science professor at Boston College What does this mean for future years The battle to redraw congressional voting districts for partisan advantage isn t likely to end with the voting process The Republican State Leadership Committee which supports GOP candidates in state legislative races warned in a latest memo that the redistricting arms race has escalated to an every cycle fight no longer centered around each decennial census Democratic lawmakers in New York are pursuing a proposed constitutional amendment that could allow redistricting ahead of the referendum Several states right now under split partisan control also could pursue congressional redistricting before if next year s electoral contest shifts the balance of power so one party controls both the legislature and governor s office It s key to recognize that the fight for redistricting and the U S House in has already started RSLC President Edith Jorge-Tu n wrote Lieb revealed from Jefferson City Missouri Associated Press writers John Hanna in Topeka Kansas Marc Levy in Lancaster Pennsylvania and Brian Witte in Annapolis Maryland contributed
