John T. Shaw: Johns Hopkins scholar shows that knowing history is invaluable to statesmanship

Winston Churchill the towering British statesman who served as prime minister during World War II was once sought by an American learner how to become a productive leader Churchill s advice Investigation history scrutiny history In history lie all the secrets of statecraft Frank Gavin a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and the director of the university s Kissinger Center believes Churchill was on to something Gavin argues that studying history fascinating in its own right can also be exceptionally helpful to aspiring statesmen and stateswomen Examining the past does not provide ironclad laws of human behavior or a clear blueprint for the future However if investigated scrupulously history can help leaders better appreciate complexity uncertainty and ambiguity in society affairs It teaches leaders to ask hard questions reexamine long-held assumptions appreciate irony and be modest even humble about what they think they know Gavin believes the skills needed to understand history can translate into practical tools for aspiring statespeople to confront contemporary problems and craft future strategies He argues that grappling with consequential or contested historical questions is strikingly similar to making critical choices about governance A rigorous understanding of the past provides insights and tools that enable better choices in the present This is especially true in the extraordinarily consequential worlds of statecraft and strategy Gavin writes in his compelling new book Thinking Historically A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy He adds It may seem obvious that we should employ history to improve decision-making but it is rarely done Gavin is the professor you unfailingly requested He s whip-smart quick-witted hugely thought-provoking deeply inquisitive intellectually bold and kind-hearted An expert on nuclear program and international finance he has taught at the Massachusetts Institute of Mechanism the University of Texas and now at Johns Hopkins Gavin s writing is nuanced and compelling It s also fun with serious analysis lightened by references to the Top Gun movies Charlie Brown Christmas specials and contentious family vacations to history-rich Colonial Williamsburg and Harpers Ferry His passion project is to persuade policymakers to use history to improve their approach to governing He also implores historians to make their work more accessible to busy policymakers by avoiding hyper-esoteric subjects and turgid language He s convinced there has been too little effort to instruct decision-makers on how to use history or to train historians on how to engage with the framework world Gavin urges leaders to develop historical sensibility a temperament that appreciates and embraces life s unpredictable rhythms baffling surprises and head-spinning coincidences Historical sensibility emanates from a tolerance for and appreciation of unintended consequences stunning reversals and sheer luck in human affairs He also urges policymakers to learn to think historically This requires a set of skills to interrogate the past by probing deeply constructing and reconstructing chronologies and contemplating counterfactuals in which different decisions might have significantly altered subsequent events This may sound abstract but Gavin offers concrete examples For instance former Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke was also a respected scholar of the Great Depression Gavin argues that as the world unraveled during the financial problem Bernanke drew on his understanding of economic history to grasp the scope of the challenge recognize the importance of global coordination and embrace out-of-the-box thinking The Fed chair s grounding in history liberated him from rigid doctrines and encouraged innovative policymaking Gavin s book provides tools for policymakers to interrogate the past Ask penetrating questions examine key assumptions search for pivotal turning points and consider multicausal explanations of events and developments He also offers a historical checklist for leaders as they consider current problems and future strategies The fundamental questions he believes they should ask include How did we get here what else is going on what are our unspoken assumptions what is really fundamental what are the the greater part likely outcomes what else could happen how rapid is the pace of events and is anything inevitable A deep and rigorous engagement with the practice of history provides a better way to see know and act in a world where decision-makers confront complexity and radical uncertainty about the future he writes I think Churchill would have loved Gavin s book and would have encouraged aspiring statespeople to inquiry it thoroughly and reflect on how the research of the past can help us deal with the present and prepare for the future The longer you can look back Churchill once disclosed the farther you can look forward John T Shaw is director of the Paul Simon General Initiative Institute His the greater part up-to-date book is The Learning of a Statesman How Global Leaders Can Repair a Fractured World He wrote this column for the Chicago Tribune